Andy Whipp v Ross Bryant (Sat 22 Jun 2019)
Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 11-6,11-4,11-5.
Starting level for
Andy Whipp:
17,592, level confidence: 37%.
Starting level for
Ross Bryant:
8,217, level confidence: 47%.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing
114% better than Ross Bryant.
Andy Whipp won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played
120% better than Ross Bryant in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Whipp actually played at a level of
17,833 and Ross Bryant at a level of
8,106. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.4% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 0.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to +0.9% and Ross Bryant changes to -0.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes +0.4% and for Ross Bryant becomes -0.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Finals Masters 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 61%, Ross Bryant: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 60%, Ross Bryant: 67%.
Final level for Andy Whipp:
17,665, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Ross Bryant:
8,186, level confidence: 67%.