Nathan Lake v James Peach (Sat 22 Jun 2019)
Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 16-14,11-3,11-3.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
33,776, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
James Peach:
17,203, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing
96% better than James Peach.
Nathan Lake won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 90% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played
90% better than James Peach in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nathan Lake was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 26,313 and 33,776 without affecting his level.
In this case, Nathan Lake played at level 32,686 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, James Peach is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 80%, James Peach: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 78%, James Peach: 86%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
33,725, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for James Peach:
17,177, level confidence: 86%.