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Michael Craig v Patrick Rooney (Sat 22 Jun 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 6-11,11-13,13-11,7-11.

Starting level for Michael Craig: 17,201, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 30,850, level confidence: 42%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 79% better than Michael Craig.

Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 25% better than Michael Craig in this match.

As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 23,402, his level reduction is 9% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 28,057 (based on typical behaviour), Michael Craig played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.7% and 10.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -6.7% and Michael Craig changes to +7.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -1.9% and for Michael Craig becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Llantrisant Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 65%, Michael Craig: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 54%, Michael Craig: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Craig: 17,578, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 30,221, level confidence: 54%.