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Peter Marshall v Neil Cordell (Tue 08 Jan 2019)

Match won by Neil Cordell. Result: 4-11,7-11.

Starting level for Peter Marshall: 16,141, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Neil Cordell: 16,310, level confidence: 66%.
Neil Cordell to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Peter Marshall.

Neil Cordell won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Cordell played 100% better than Peter Marshall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Cordell actually played at a level of 22,946 and Peter Marshall at a level of 11,473. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 41% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Cordell changes to +27% and Peter Marshall changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Cordell becomes +6.2% and for Peter Marshall becomes -6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Neil Cordell is +5.3% and for Peter Marshall is -5.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Cordell: 81%, Peter Marshall: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Cordell: 58%, Peter Marshall: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Marshall: 15,260, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Neil Cordell: 17,151, level confidence: 58%.