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Nathan Lake v Peter Marshall (Tue 05 Mar 2019)

Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Nathan Lake: 30,007, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Peter Marshall: 17,934, level confidence: 56%.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Peter Marshall.

Nathan Lake won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played 69% better than Peter Marshall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Lake actually played at a level of 30,178 and Peter Marshall at a level of 17,832. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.3% and 0.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to +0.3% and Peter Marshall changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes +0.1% and for Peter Marshall becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Nathan Lake is 0% and for Peter Marshall is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 71%, Peter Marshall: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 70%, Peter Marshall: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nathan Lake: 29,996, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Peter Marshall: 17,887, level confidence: 75%.