Liam Gutcher v James Peach (Tue 19 Mar 2019)
Match won by James Peach. Result: 5-11,17-15,4-11.
Starting level for
Liam Gutcher:
13,659, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
James Peach:
15,856, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Liam Gutcher.
James Peach won 67% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played
31% better than Liam Gutcher in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Peach actually played at a level of
16,854 and Liam Gutcher at a level of
12,850. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.3% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 4.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to +4.3% and Liam Gutcher changes to -4.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes +1.7% and for Liam Gutcher becomes -1.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for James Peach is +1.4% and for Liam Gutcher is -1.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 85%, Liam Gutcher: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 80%, Liam Gutcher: 81%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Liam Gutcher:
13,447, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for James Peach:
16,054, level confidence: 80%.