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Harry Falconer v Liam Gutcher (Tue 02 Apr 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-3,11-7.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 18,764, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Liam Gutcher: 14,380, level confidence: 47%.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Liam Gutcher.

Harry Falconer won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 120% better than Liam Gutcher in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of 24,364 and Liam Gutcher at a level of 11,075. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +10.1% and Liam Gutcher changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +2.8% and for Liam Gutcher becomes -4.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is +2.4% and for Liam Gutcher is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 93%, Liam Gutcher: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 72%, Liam Gutcher: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 19,196, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Liam Gutcher: 13,811, level confidence: 53%.