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Chris Hall v Patrick Rooney (Tue 02 Apr 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 5-11,11-8,9-11.

Starting level for Chris Hall: 20,078, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 26,898, level confidence: 53%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Chris Hall.

Patrick Rooney won 67% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 20% better than Chris Hall in this match.

As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 24,711, his level reduction is 2.6% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 26,164 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Hall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.2% and 3.6% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 2.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -1.7% and Chris Hall changes to +2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -0.7% and for Chris Hall becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is -0.6% and for Chris Hall is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 72%, Chris Hall: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 69%, Chris Hall: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hall: 20,216, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 26,716, level confidence: 69%.