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Ben Coleman v Sam Todd (Sat 01 Jun 2019)

Match won by Ben Coleman. Result: 11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Ben Coleman: 30,273, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Sam Todd: 18,451, level confidence: 64%.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Sam Todd.

Ben Coleman won all of the games and 76% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 214% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Coleman played 214% better than Sam Todd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Coleman actually played at a level of 41,899 and Sam Todd at a level of 13,331. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Coleman changes to +19% and Sam Todd changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Coleman becomes +4.3% and for Sam Todd becomes -5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Ben Coleman is +3.6% and for Sam Todd is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Coleman: 83%, Sam Todd: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Coleman: 60%, Sam Todd: 58%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Coleman: 31,369, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Sam Todd: 17,706, level confidence: 58%.