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Nick Thomson v Joe Lee (Wed 26 Jun 2019)

Match won by Joe Lee. Result: 10-15,4-15,7-15.

Starting level for Nick Thomson: 4,627, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joe Lee: 24,830, level confidence: 10%.
Joe Lee to win as he is currently playing 437% better than Nick Thomson.

Joe Lee won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Lee played 114% better than Nick Thomson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joe Lee was taking it easy by anything up to 44%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,285 and 24,830 without affecting his level.

In this case, Joe Lee played at level 11,713 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Joe Lee would normally have been playing at level 13,838 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Thomson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Lee changes to 0% and Nick Thomson changes to +0.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Lee becomes 0% and for Nick Thomson becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Joe Lee is 0% and for Nick Thomson is +0.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Lee: 32%, Nick Thomson: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Lee: 20%, Nick Thomson: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Thomson: 4,636, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Joe Lee: 24,793, level confidence: 20%.