Angus Gillams v Stuart Macgregor (Fri 28 Jun 2019)
Match won by Angus Gillams. Result: 5-11,11-5,11-8,5-11,11-3.
Starting level for
Angus Gillams:
22,224, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
19,848, level confidence: 66%.
Angus Gillams to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Angus Gillams won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Angus Gillams played
11% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Angus Gillams actually played at a level of
22,106 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of
19,954. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Angus Gillams changes to -0.5% and Stuart Macgregor changes to +0.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Angus Gillams becomes -0.2% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Gibraltar Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Angus Gillams: 84%, Stuart Macgregor: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Angus Gillams: 84%, Stuart Macgregor: 81%.
Final level for Angus Gillams:
22,179, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
19,891, level confidence: 81%.