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Mike Gregory v James Peach (Thu 04 Jul 2019)

Match won by James Peach. Result: 5-11,6-11,11-2,9-11.

Starting level for Mike Gregory: 9,226, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Peach: 17,179, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing 86% better than Mike Gregory.

James Peach won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 21% better than Mike Gregory in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Peach was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 13,879 and 17,179 without affecting his level.

As James Peach has played below his allowed range at 12,448, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 15,441 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Gregory played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.3% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to -8% and Mike Gregory changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes -2.4% and for Mike Gregory becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Egcc June Graded 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 90%, Mike Gregory: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 73%, Mike Gregory: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Gregory: 9,567, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for James Peach: 16,746, level confidence: 73%.