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Adam Corcoran v Stephen Nicholls (Sat 06 Jul 2019)

Match won by Adam Corcoran. Result: 11-2,11-0,11-3.

Starting level for Adam Corcoran: 13,997, level confidence: 16%.
Starting level for Stephen Nicholls: 4,707, level confidence: 64%.
Adam Corcoran to win as he is currently playing 197% better than Stephen Nicholls.

Adam Corcoran won all of the games and 87% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Corcoran played 560% better than Stephen Nicholls in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Corcoran actually played at a level of 20,853 and Stephen Nicholls at a level of 3,159. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 49% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Corcoran changes to +26% and Stephen Nicholls changes to -5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Corcoran becomes +6.3% and for Stephen Nicholls becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Brewin Dolphin Excalibur Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Corcoran: 40%, Stephen Nicholls: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Corcoran: 27%, Stephen Nicholls: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Corcoran: 14,852, level confidence: 27%.
Final level for Stephen Nicholls: 4,582, level confidence: 54%.