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Richie Fallows v Jon Foster (Sat 06 Jul 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 3-11,11-7,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 31,266, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Jon Foster: 7,580, level confidence: 51%.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 312% better than Jon Foster.

Richie Fallows won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 19% better than Jon Foster in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Richie Fallows was taking it easy by anything up to 35%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 13,020 and 31,266 without affecting his level.

As Richie Fallows has played below his allowed range at 10,823, his level reduction is 20% before damping. On the assumption that Richie Fallows would normally have been playing at level 20,176 (based on typical behaviour), Jon Foster played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 50%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.5% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to -8.4% and Jon Foster changes to +22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes -2.2% and for Jon Foster becomes +6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Brewin Dolphin Excalibur Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 75%, Jon Foster: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 40%, Jon Foster: 38%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 30,534, level confidence: 40%.
Final level for Jon Foster: 8,043, level confidence: 38%.