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Richie Fallows v Adam Corcoran (Sat 06 Jul 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-6,11-9,12-10.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 30,461, level confidence: 41%.
Starting level for Adam Corcoran: 14,912, level confidence: 27%.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 104% better than Adam Corcoran.

Richie Fallows won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 42% better than Adam Corcoran in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Richie Fallows was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 23,082 and 30,461 without affecting his level.

As Richie Fallows has played below his allowed range at 22,129, his level reduction is 4.3% before damping. On the assumption that Richie Fallows would normally have been playing at level 26,516 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Corcoran played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 8.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to -2% and Adam Corcoran changes to +8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes -0.8% and for Adam Corcoran becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Brewin Dolphin Excalibur Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 64%, Adam Corcoran: 52%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 53%, Adam Corcoran: 43%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 30,177, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Adam Corcoran: 15,263, level confidence: 43%.