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Richie Fallows v Robert Downer (Sun 07 Jul 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-9,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 30,245, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Robert Downer: 17,606, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 72% better than Robert Downer.

Richie Fallows won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 40% better than Robert Downer in this match.

As Richie Fallows has played below his allowed range at 25,106, his level reduction is 2.2% before damping. On the assumption that Richie Fallows would normally have been playing at level 27,851 (based on typical behaviour), Robert Downer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 4.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to -1.6% and Robert Downer changes to +3.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes -0.7% and for Robert Downer becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Brewin Dolphin Excalibur Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 73%, Robert Downer: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 66%, Robert Downer: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 30,002, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Robert Downer: 17,821, level confidence: 81%.