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Ed Westmacott v Scott Handley (Tue 23 Jul 2019)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 3-11,6-11,3-11.

Starting level for Ed Westmacott: 2,796, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 12,960, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 364% better than Ed Westmacott.

Scott Handley won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 175% better than Ed Westmacott in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Scott Handley was taking it easy by anything up to 40%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,960 and 12,960 without affecting his level.

In this case, Scott Handley played at level 7,757 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Scott Handley would normally have been playing at level 7,825 (based on typical behaviour), Ed Westmacott played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to 0% and Ed Westmacott changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes 0% and for Ed Westmacott becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is 0% and for Ed Westmacott is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 90%, Ed Westmacott: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 70%, Ed Westmacott: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ed Westmacott: 2,797, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 12,941, level confidence: 70%.