Joe Lee v Alan Taffinder (Thu 01 Aug 2019)
Match won by Joe Lee. Result: 15-4,15-5,15-4.
Starting level for
Joe Lee:
24,769, level confidence: 17%.
Starting level for
Alan Taffinder:
7,112, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Joe Lee to win as he is currently playing
248% better than Alan Taffinder.
Joe Lee won all of the games and 78% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 246% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Lee played
246% better than Alan Taffinder in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joe Lee was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,899 and 24,769 without affecting his level.
In this case, Joe Lee played at level 24,618 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Alan Taffinder is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Lee: 41%, Alan Taffinder: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Lee: 41%, Alan Taffinder: 90%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joe Lee:
24,831, level confidence: 41%.
Final level for Alan Taffinder:
7,130, level confidence: 90%.