Mohammad Syafiq Kamal v Tang Ming Hong (Fri 02 Aug 2019)
Match won by Mohammad Syafiq Kamal. Result: 11-8,11-5,6-11,5-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Mohammad Syafiq Kamal:
20,601, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tang Ming Hong:
18,130, level confidence: 70%.
Mohammad Syafiq Kamal to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Tang Ming Hong.
Mohammad Syafiq Kamal won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohammad Syafiq Kamal played
10% better than Tang Ming Hong in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohammad Syafiq Kamal actually played at a level of
20,269 and Tang Ming Hong at a level of
18,427. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal changes to -1.4% and Tang Ming Hong changes to +1.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal becomes -0.6% and for Tang Ming Hong becomes +0.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Greetings Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 88%, Tang Ming Hong: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 87%, Tang Ming Hong: 82%.
Final level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal:
20,479, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Tang Ming Hong:
18,253, level confidence: 82%.