Omar Abdel Meguid v Mohammad Syafiq Kamal (Sat 03 Aug 2019)
Match won by Omar Abdel Meguid. Result: 11-8,15-17,11-8,11-8.
Starting level for
Omar Abdel Meguid:
28,549, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mohammad Syafiq Kamal:
20,479, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Omar Abdel Meguid to win as he is currently playing
39% better than Mohammad Syafiq Kamal.
Omar Abdel Meguid won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Omar Abdel Meguid played
22% better than Mohammad Syafiq Kamal in this match.
As Omar Abdel Meguid has played below his allowed range at 25,833, his level reduction is 3.1% before damping. On the assumption that Omar Abdel Meguid would normally have been playing at level 27,572 (based on typical behaviour), Mohammad Syafiq Kamal played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 4.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Omar Abdel Meguid changes to -2.6% and Mohammad Syafiq Kamal changes to +3.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Omar Abdel Meguid becomes -1% and for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal becomes +1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Greetings Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Omar Abdel Meguid: 85%, Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Omar Abdel Meguid: 80%, Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 87%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Omar Abdel Meguid:
28,169, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal:
20,813, level confidence: 87%.