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Neil Cordell v Jamie Mathews (Tue 06 Aug 2019)

Match won by Neil Cordell. Result: 12-10,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Neil Cordell: 16,442, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Jamie Mathews: 8,928, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Neil Cordell to win as he is currently playing 84% better than Jamie Mathews.

Neil Cordell won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 89% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Cordell played 89% better than Jamie Mathews in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Cordell actually played at a level of 16,652 and Jamie Mathews at a level of 8,816. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 0.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Cordell changes to +0.9% and Jamie Mathews changes to -0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Cordell becomes +0.4% and for Jamie Mathews becomes -0.3%.

Given Neil Cordell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 72% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jamie Mathews's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Neil Cordell is 0% and for Jamie Mathews is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Cordell: 72%, Jamie Mathews: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Cordell: 71%, Jamie Mathews: 87%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Cordell: 16,509, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Jamie Mathews: 8,936, level confidence: 87%.