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Adam Corcoran v Phil Nightingale (Fri 09 Aug 2019)

Match won by Adam Corcoran. Result: 11-6,11-4,13-11.

Starting level for Adam Corcoran: 15,263, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for Phil Nightingale: 14,605, level confidence: 62%.
Adam Corcoran to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Phil Nightingale.

Adam Corcoran won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Corcoran played 67% better than Phil Nightingale in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Corcoran actually played at a level of 19,275 and Phil Nightingale at a level of 11,565. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Corcoran changes to +26% and Phil Nightingale changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Corcoran becomes +6.1% and for Phil Nightingale becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Corcoran: 61%, Phil Nightingale: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Corcoran: 49%, Phil Nightingale: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Corcoran: 16,167, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Phil Nightingale: 14,044, level confidence: 62%.