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Aditya Jagtap v Lyell Fuller (Wed 07 Aug 2019)

Match won by Aditya Jagtap. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Aditya Jagtap: 21,621, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 24,682, level confidence: 57%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Aditya Jagtap.

Aditya Jagtap won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Aditya Jagtap played 52% better than Lyell Fuller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Aditya Jagtap actually played at a level of 28,448 and Lyell Fuller at a level of 18,759. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Aditya Jagtap changes to +29% and Lyell Fuller changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Aditya Jagtap becomes +6.3% and for Lyell Fuller becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Houston Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Aditya Jagtap: 72%, Lyell Fuller: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Aditya Jagtap: 55%, Lyell Fuller: 57%.

A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Aditya Jagtap: 22,879, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Lyell Fuller: 24,086, level confidence: 57%.