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Ben Coleman v James Wyatt (Sat 10 Aug 2019)

Match won by Ben Coleman. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Ben Coleman: 31,398, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for James Wyatt: 13,218, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing 138% better than James Wyatt.

Ben Coleman won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Coleman played 56% better than James Wyatt in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ben Coleman was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 21,561 and 31,398 without affecting his level.

As Ben Coleman has played below his allowed range at 21,115, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Ben Coleman would normally have been playing at level 26,019 (based on typical behaviour), James Wyatt played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 7.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Coleman changes to -1.4% and James Wyatt changes to +4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Coleman becomes -0.5% and for James Wyatt becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Coleman: 67%, James Wyatt: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Coleman: 54%, James Wyatt: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Coleman: 31,181, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for James Wyatt: 13,425, level confidence: 72%.