Ben Coleman v Richie Fallows (Sat 10 Aug 2019)
Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-6,5-11,11-4,6-11,3-11.
Starting level for
Ben Coleman:
31,547, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for
Richie Fallows:
30,174, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing
5% better than Richie Fallows.
Richie Fallows won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played
12% better than Ben Coleman in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richie Fallows actually played at a level of
32,704 and Ben Coleman at a level of
29,106. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to +6.2% and Ben Coleman changes to -8.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes +1.8% and for Ben Coleman becomes -2.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 85%, Ben Coleman: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 78%, Ben Coleman: 68%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ben Coleman:
30,917, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Richie Fallows:
30,695, level confidence: 78%.