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Tom Richards v Adrian Waller (Sun 11 Aug 2019)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-8,11-9,9-11,12-10.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 38,609, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Adrian Waller: 44,096, level confidence: 65%.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Tom Richards.

Tom Richards won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 21% better than Adrian Waller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of 45,405 and Adrian Waller at a level of 37,496. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +15% and Adrian Waller changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +3.4% and for Adrian Waller becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 84%, Adrian Waller: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 71%, Adrian Waller: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 39,827, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Adrian Waller: 42,697, level confidence: 69%.