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Matthew Broadberry v Neil Cordell (Wed 14 Aug 2019)

Match won by Neil Cordell. Result: 3-11,2-11,4-11.

Starting level for Matthew Broadberry: 12,383, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Neil Cordell: 16,509, level confidence: 69%.
Neil Cordell to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Matthew Broadberry.

Neil Cordell won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Cordell played 267% better than Matthew Broadberry in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Cordell actually played at a level of 27,378 and Matthew Broadberry at a level of 7,467. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 66% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 55% and 55% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Cordell changes to +55% and Matthew Broadberry changes to -44%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Cordell becomes +11.1% and for Matthew Broadberry becomes -9.9%.

Given Neil Cordell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 73% has been applied to his level change.

Given Matthew Broadberry's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 49% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Neil Cordell is +4.2% and for Matthew Broadberry is -4.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Cordell: 83%, Matthew Broadberry: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Cordell: 50%, Matthew Broadberry: 54%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Broadberry: 11,928, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Neil Cordell: 17,242, level confidence: 50%.