Mohammad Syafiq Kamal v Nicholas Calvert (Fri 23 Aug 2019)
Match won by Mohammad Syafiq Kamal. Result: 11-9,9-11,11-6,11-3.
Starting level for
Mohammad Syafiq Kamal:
20,833, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nicholas Calvert:
11,964, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Mohammad Syafiq Kamal to win as he is currently playing
74% better than Nicholas Calvert.
Mohammad Syafiq Kamal won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohammad Syafiq Kamal played
32% better than Nicholas Calvert in this match.
As Mohammad Syafiq Kamal has played below his allowed range at 16,611, his level reduction is 5.5% before damping. On the assumption that Mohammad Syafiq Kamal would normally have been playing at level 19,111 (based on typical behaviour), Nicholas Calvert played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 7.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal changes to -4.2% and Nicholas Calvert changes to +7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal becomes -1.6% and for Nicholas Calvert becomes +2.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA North Coast Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 89%, Nicholas Calvert: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 78%, Nicholas Calvert: 81%.
Final level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal:
20,515, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Nicholas Calvert:
12,246, level confidence: 81%.