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Vikram Malhotra v Sandeep Ramachandran (Sat 24 Aug 2019)

Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-5.

Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 27,087, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Sandeep Ramachandran: 12,694, level confidence: 19%.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing 113% better than Sandeep Ramachandran.

Vikram Malhotra won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played 65% better than Sandeep Ramachandran in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Vikram Malhotra was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,979 and 27,087 without affecting his level.

In this case, Vikram Malhotra played at level 22,074 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Vikram Malhotra would normally have been playing at level 23,263 (based on typical behaviour), Sandeep Ramachandran played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to 0% and Sandeep Ramachandran changes to +3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes 0% and for Sandeep Ramachandran becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Srfi Indian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 67%, Sandeep Ramachandran: 43%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 59%, Sandeep Ramachandran: 38%.

Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 27,087, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Sandeep Ramachandran: 12,893, level confidence: 38%.