Andy Whipp v Marcus Hayes (Sat 22 Jun 2019)
Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-5.
Starting level for
Andy Whipp:
17,662, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Marcus Hayes:
8,722, level confidence: 59%.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing
102% better than Marcus Hayes.
Andy Whipp won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played
106% better than Marcus Hayes in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Whipp actually played at a level of
17,825 and Marcus Hayes at a level of
8,642. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.6% and 0.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to +0.6% and Marcus Hayes changes to -0.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes +0.3% and for Marcus Hayes becomes -0.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Finals Masters 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 77%, Marcus Hayes: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 77%, Marcus Hayes: 76%.
Final level for Andy Whipp:
17,712, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes:
8,693, level confidence: 76%.