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Curtis Malik v Neil Cordell (Thu 29 Aug 2019)

Match won by Curtis Malik. Result: 9-11,11-8,11-4,11-2.

Starting level for Curtis Malik: 18,385, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Neil Cordell: 17,262, level confidence: 47%.
Curtis Malik to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Neil Cordell.

Curtis Malik won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 68% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Curtis Malik played 39% better than Neil Cordell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Curtis Malik actually played at a level of 21,018 and Neil Cordell at a level of 15,100. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Curtis Malik changes to +9% and Neil Cordell changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Curtis Malik becomes +2.6% and for Neil Cordell becomes -3.6%.

Given Curtis Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 83% has been applied to his level change.

Given Neil Cordell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 77% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Curtis Malik is +0.9% and for Neil Cordell is -1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Curtis Malik: 85%, Neil Cordell: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Curtis Malik: 74%, Neil Cordell: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Curtis Malik: 18,601, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Neil Cordell: 17,082, level confidence: 60%.