Andy Whipp v Lewis Doughty (Sat 31 Aug 2019)
Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 13-11,7-11,11-9,11-6.
Starting level for
Andy Whipp:
18,072, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Lewis Doughty:
11,967, level confidence: 68%.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing
51% better than Lewis Doughty.
Andy Whipp won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played
21% better than Lewis Doughty in this match.
As Andy Whipp has played below his allowed range at 15,387, his level reduction is 6.1% before damping. On the assumption that Andy Whipp would normally have been playing at level 17,175 (based on typical behaviour), Lewis Doughty played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 7.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to -4% and Lewis Doughty changes to +7.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes -1.6% and for Lewis Doughty becomes +2.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Andrew Gill Memorial Championship 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 91%, Lewis Doughty: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 81%, Lewis Doughty: 74%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Andy Whipp:
17,838, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Lewis Doughty:
12,284, level confidence: 74%.