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Nick Wall v Andy Whipp (Sun 01 Sep 2019)

Match won by Nick Wall. Result: 11-8,11-9,10-12,11-13,12-10.

Starting level for Nick Wall: 22,843, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andy Whipp: 17,970, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Nick Wall to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Andy Whipp.

Nick Wall won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Wall played 9% better than Andy Whipp in this match.

As Nick Wall has played below his allowed range at 20,749, his level reduction is 6% before damping. On the assumption that Nick Wall would normally have been playing at level 22,413 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Whipp played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.3% and 6.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Wall changes to -5.3% and Andy Whipp changes to +5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Wall becomes -1.8% and for Andy Whipp becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Andrew Gill Memorial Championship 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Wall: 85%, Andy Whipp: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Wall: 79%, Andy Whipp: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Wall: 22,506, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Andy Whipp: 18,352, level confidence: 83%.