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Tayyab Aslam v Hamza Sharif (Tue 27 Aug 2019)

Match won by Tayyab Aslam. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Tayyab Aslam: 30,199, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hamza Sharif: 10,920, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Tayyab Aslam to win as he is currently playing 177% better than Hamza Sharif.

Tayyab Aslam won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tayyab Aslam played 56% better than Hamza Sharif in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tayyab Aslam was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,382 and 30,199 without affecting his level.

As Tayyab Aslam has played below his allowed range at 17,232, his level reduction is 0.9% before damping. On the assumption that Tayyab Aslam would normally have been playing at level 23,625 (based on typical behaviour), Hamza Sharif played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 10.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam changes to -0.5% and Hamza Sharif changes to +9.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam becomes -0.2% and for Hamza Sharif becomes +3%.

Given Tayyab Aslam's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 55% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Hamza Sharif's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'PSA Pakistan Circuit No1' so the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam is 0% and for Hamza Sharif is +1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tayyab Aslam: 84%, Hamza Sharif: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tayyab Aslam: 63%, Hamza Sharif: 66%.

Final level for Tayyab Aslam: 30,168, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Hamza Sharif: 11,125, level confidence: 66%.