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Farhan Mehboob v Danish Atlas Khan (Tue 27 Aug 2019)

Match won by Farhan Mehboob. Result: 11-8,11-9,13-11.

Starting level for Farhan Mehboob: 32,135, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Danish Atlas Khan: 22,629, level confidence: 37%.
Farhan Mehboob to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Danish Atlas Khan.

Farhan Mehboob won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Farhan Mehboob played 35% better than Danish Atlas Khan in this match.

In this case, Farhan Mehboob played at level 30,726 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Farhan Mehboob would normally have been playing at level 30,926 (based on typical behaviour), Danish Atlas Khan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob changes to 0% and Danish Atlas Khan changes to +0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob becomes 0% and for Danish Atlas Khan becomes 0%.

Given Danish Atlas Khan's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 44% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'PSA Pakistan Circuit No1' so the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob is 0% and for Danish Atlas Khan is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Farhan Mehboob: 69%, Danish Atlas Khan: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Farhan Mehboob: 67%, Danish Atlas Khan: 60%.

Final level for Farhan Mehboob: 32,135, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Danish Atlas Khan: 22,656, level confidence: 60%.