Vikram Malhotra v Aditya Jagtap (Tue 27 Aug 2019)
Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-6,6-11,11-6,11-6.
Starting level for
Vikram Malhotra:
27,950, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Aditya Jagtap:
24,690, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Aditya Jagtap.
Vikram Malhotra won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played
28% better than Aditya Jagtap in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vikram Malhotra actually played at a level of
29,736 and Aditya Jagtap at a level of
23,207. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to +6% and Aditya Jagtap changes to -5.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes +1.8% and for Aditya Jagtap becomes -1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Srfi Indian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 87%, Aditya Jagtap: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 81%, Aditya Jagtap: 85%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra:
28,369, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Aditya Jagtap:
24,332, level confidence: 85%.