Farhan Mehboob v Haris Qasim (Wed 28 Aug 2019)
Match won by Farhan Mehboob. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-5.
Starting level for
Farhan Mehboob:
32,140, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Haris Qasim:
16,374, level confidence: 21%.
Farhan Mehboob to win as he is currently playing
96% better than Haris Qasim.
Farhan Mehboob won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Farhan Mehboob played
136% better than Haris Qasim in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Farhan Mehboob actually played at a level of
35,220 and Haris Qasim at a level of
14,942. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.8% and 6.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob changes to +2.1% and Haris Qasim changes to -6.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob becomes +0.9% and for Haris Qasim becomes -2.2%.
Given Farhan Mehboob's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 58% has been applied to his level change.
Given Haris Qasim's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'PSA Pakistan Circuit No1' so the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob is +0.4% and for Haris Qasim is -1.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Farhan Mehboob: 82%, Haris Qasim: 46%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Farhan Mehboob: 75%, Haris Qasim: 42%.
Final level for Farhan Mehboob:
32,270, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Haris Qasim:
16,175, level confidence: 42%.