Muhammad Asim Khan v Tayyab Aslam (Thu 29 Aug 2019)
Match won by Muhammad Asim Khan. Result: 6-11,3-11,11-9,11-9,11-8.
Starting level for
Muhammad Asim Khan:
21,549, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tayyab Aslam:
30,133, level confidence: 70%.
Tayyab Aslam to win as he is currently playing
40% better than Muhammad Asim Khan.
Muhammad Asim Khan won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was worse by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Muhammad Asim Khan played
4% better than Tayyab Aslam in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Muhammad Asim Khan actually played at a level of
26,034 and Tayyab Aslam at a level of
24,942. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Muhammad Asim Khan changes to +15% and Tayyab Aslam changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Muhammad Asim Khan becomes +3.7% and for Tayyab Aslam becomes -3.9%.
Given Muhammad Asim Khan's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.
Given Tayyab Aslam's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 55% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'PSA Pakistan Circuit No1' so the adjustment for Muhammad Asim Khan is +1.9% and for Tayyab Aslam is -1.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Muhammad Asim Khan: 90%, Tayyab Aslam: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Muhammad Asim Khan: 75%, Tayyab Aslam: 69%.
Final level for Muhammad Asim Khan:
21,967, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Tayyab Aslam:
29,585, level confidence: 69%.