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Muhammad Asim Khan v Tayyab Aslam (Thu 29 Aug 2019)

Match won by Muhammad Asim Khan. Result: 6-11,3-11,11-9,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Muhammad Asim Khan: 21,549, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tayyab Aslam: 30,133, level confidence: 70%.
Tayyab Aslam to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Muhammad Asim Khan.

Muhammad Asim Khan won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Muhammad Asim Khan played 4% better than Tayyab Aslam in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Muhammad Asim Khan actually played at a level of 26,034 and Tayyab Aslam at a level of 24,942. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Muhammad Asim Khan changes to +15% and Tayyab Aslam changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Muhammad Asim Khan becomes +3.7% and for Tayyab Aslam becomes -3.9%.

Given Muhammad Asim Khan's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.

Given Tayyab Aslam's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 55% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'PSA Pakistan Circuit No1' so the adjustment for Muhammad Asim Khan is +1.9% and for Tayyab Aslam is -1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Muhammad Asim Khan: 90%, Tayyab Aslam: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Muhammad Asim Khan: 75%, Tayyab Aslam: 69%.

Final level for Muhammad Asim Khan: 21,967, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Tayyab Aslam: 29,585, level confidence: 69%.