Farhan Mehboob v Amaad Fareed (Thu 29 Aug 2019)
Match won by Farhan Mehboob. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-9.
Starting level for
Farhan Mehboob:
32,267, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Amaad Fareed:
22,497, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Farhan Mehboob to win as he is currently playing
43% better than Amaad Fareed.
Farhan Mehboob won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Farhan Mehboob played
56% better than Amaad Fareed in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Farhan Mehboob actually played at a level of
33,698 and Amaad Fareed at a level of
21,541. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.4% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 3.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob changes to +3.7% and Amaad Fareed changes to -3.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob becomes +1.3% and for Amaad Fareed becomes -1.4%.
Given Farhan Mehboob's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 58% has been applied to his level change.
Given Amaad Fareed's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 44% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'PSA Pakistan Circuit No1' so the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob is +0.6% and for Amaad Fareed is -0.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Farhan Mehboob: 86%, Amaad Fareed: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Farhan Mehboob: 83%, Amaad Fareed: 84%.
Final level for Farhan Mehboob:
32,469, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Amaad Fareed:
22,334, level confidence: 84%.