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Muhammad Asim Khan v Farhan Mehboob (Fri 30 Aug 2019)

Match won by Muhammad Asim Khan. Result: 8-11,15-13,4-11,11-7,11-1.

Starting level for Muhammad Asim Khan: 21,936, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Farhan Mehboob: 32,427, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Farhan Mehboob to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Muhammad Asim Khan.

Muhammad Asim Khan won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Muhammad Asim Khan played 11% better than Farhan Mehboob in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Muhammad Asim Khan actually played at a level of 28,098 and Farhan Mehboob at a level of 25,316. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Muhammad Asim Khan changes to +23% and Farhan Mehboob changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Muhammad Asim Khan becomes +5.1% and for Farhan Mehboob becomes -4.3%.

Given Muhammad Asim Khan's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change.

Given Farhan Mehboob's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 58% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'PSA Pakistan Circuit No1' so the adjustment for Muhammad Asim Khan is +2.7% and for Farhan Mehboob is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Muhammad Asim Khan: 86%, Farhan Mehboob: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Muhammad Asim Khan: 67%, Farhan Mehboob: 71%.

Final level for Muhammad Asim Khan: 22,525, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Farhan Mehboob: 31,792, level confidence: 71%.