Muhammad Asim Khan v Farhan Mehboob (Fri 30 Aug 2019)
Match won by Muhammad Asim Khan. Result: 8-11,15-13,4-11,11-7,11-1.
Starting level for
Muhammad Asim Khan:
21,936, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Farhan Mehboob:
32,427, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Farhan Mehboob to win as he is currently playing
48% better than Muhammad Asim Khan.
Muhammad Asim Khan won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Muhammad Asim Khan played
11% better than Farhan Mehboob in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Muhammad Asim Khan actually played at a level of
28,098 and Farhan Mehboob at a level of
25,316. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Muhammad Asim Khan changes to +23% and Farhan Mehboob changes to -20%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Muhammad Asim Khan becomes +5.1% and for Farhan Mehboob becomes -4.3%.
Given Muhammad Asim Khan's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change.
Given Farhan Mehboob's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 58% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'PSA Pakistan Circuit No1' so the adjustment for Muhammad Asim Khan is +2.7% and for Farhan Mehboob is -2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Muhammad Asim Khan: 86%, Farhan Mehboob: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Muhammad Asim Khan: 67%, Farhan Mehboob: 71%.
Final level for Muhammad Asim Khan:
22,525, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Farhan Mehboob:
31,792, level confidence: 71%.