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Neal Brooker v Neil Cordell (Tue 03 Sep 2019)

Match won by Neil Cordell. Result: 8-11,6-11,4-11.

Starting level for Neal Brooker: 11,032, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Neil Cordell: 17,222, level confidence: 59%.
Neil Cordell to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Neal Brooker.

Neil Cordell won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Cordell played 83% better than Neal Brooker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Cordell actually played at a level of 18,663 and Neal Brooker at a level of 10,180. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.6% and 6.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Cordell changes to +5.7% and Neal Brooker changes to -6.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Cordell becomes +1.9% and for Neal Brooker becomes -2.3%.

Given Neil Cordell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 77% has been applied to his level change.

Given Neal Brooker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Neil Cordell is +0.7% and for Neal Brooker is -1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Cordell: 77%, Neal Brooker: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Cordell: 71%, Neal Brooker: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neal Brooker: 10,943, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Neil Cordell: 17,387, level confidence: 71%.