Michael Aley v Mike Harris (Fri 06 Sep 2019)
Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 4-11,2-11,6-11.
Starting level for
Michael Aley:
8,172, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mike Harris:
22,390, level confidence: 29%.
Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing
174% better than Michael Aley.
Mike Harris won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played
175% better than Michael Aley in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Harris actually played at a level of
22,431 and Michael Aley at a level of
8,157. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to 0% and Michael Aley changes to 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 54%, Michael Aley: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 54%, Michael Aley: 90%.
Final level for Michael Aley:
8,170, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Mike Harris:
22,401, level confidence: 54%.