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Michael Aley v Mike Harris (Fri 06 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 4-11,2-11,6-11.

Starting level for Michael Aley: 8,172, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mike Harris: 22,390, level confidence: 29%.
Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing 174% better than Michael Aley.

Mike Harris won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played 175% better than Michael Aley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Harris actually played at a level of 22,431 and Michael Aley at a level of 8,157. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to 0% and Michael Aley changes to 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 54%, Michael Aley: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 54%, Michael Aley: 90%.

Final level for Michael Aley: 8,170, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Mike Harris: 22,401, level confidence: 54%.