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Piedro Schweertman v Alejandro Garbi Caro (Fri 23 Aug 2019)

Match won by Piedro Schweertman. Result: 14-12,11-7,11-2.

Starting level for Piedro Schweertman: 26,567, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Alejandro Garbi Caro: 22,622, level confidence: 54%.
Piedro Schweertman to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Alejandro Garbi Caro.

Piedro Schweertman won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 71% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Piedro Schweertman played 71% better than Alejandro Garbi Caro in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Piedro Schweertman actually played at a level of 32,098 and Alejandro Garbi Caro at a level of 18,724. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Piedro Schweertman changes to +17% and Alejandro Garbi Caro changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Piedro Schweertman becomes +3.9% and for Alejandro Garbi Caro becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'European Individual Masters Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Piedro Schweertman: 78%, Alejandro Garbi Caro: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Piedro Schweertman: 64%, Alejandro Garbi Caro: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Piedro Schweertman: 27,461, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Alejandro Garbi Caro: 21,558, level confidence: 61%.