Robert Dadds v Mike Harris (Sat 07 Sep 2019)
Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 11-5,4-11,6-11,7-11.
Starting level for
Robert Dadds:
14,597, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Mike Harris:
22,221, level confidence: 54%.
Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing
52% better than Robert Dadds.
Mike Harris won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played
29% better than Robert Dadds in this match.
As Mike Harris has played below his allowed range at 19,371, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Mike Harris would normally have been playing at level 21,081 (based on typical behaviour), Robert Dadds played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 4.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to -2.6% and Robert Dadds changes to +4.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Harris becomes -1.1% and for Robert Dadds becomes +1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Lexden RFC Open PSA Satellite' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 73%, Robert Dadds: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 67%, Robert Dadds: 68%.
Final level for Robert Dadds:
14,855, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Mike Harris:
21,977, level confidence: 67%.