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Mazen Hesham v Adrian Waller (Thu 05 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mazen Hesham. Result: 9-11,11-9,11-9,11-5.

Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 40,612, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Adrian Waller: 42,697, level confidence: 62%.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Mazen Hesham.

Mazen Hesham won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Hesham played 25% better than Adrian Waller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mazen Hesham actually played at a level of 46,466 and Adrian Waller at a level of 37,318. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham changes to +13% and Adrian Waller changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham becomes +3% and for Adrian Waller becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Hesham: 81%, Adrian Waller: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Hesham: 71%, Adrian Waller: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mazen Hesham: 41,669, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Adrian Waller: 41,467, level confidence: 69%.