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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Lucas Serme (Thu 05 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 8-11,9-11,11-7,11-4,11-2.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 68,942, level confidence: 40%.
Starting level for Lucas Serme: 39,374, level confidence: 57%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Lucas Serme.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won 60% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 18% better than Lucas Serme in this match.

As Mohamed Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 51,884, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 63,144 (based on typical behaviour), Lucas Serme played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.6% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -8.6% and Lucas Serme changes to +8.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -2% and for Lucas Serme becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 63%, Lucas Serme: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 52%, Lucas Serme: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 67,467, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Lucas Serme: 40,255, level confidence: 62%.