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Rui Soares v Harry Falconer (Thu 05 Sep 2019)

Match won by Rui Soares. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Rui Soares: 24,989, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Harry Falconer: 20,662, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Rui Soares to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Harry Falconer.

Rui Soares won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rui Soares played 47% better than Harry Falconer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rui Soares actually played at a level of 27,576 and Harry Falconer at a level of 18,724. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rui Soares changes to +9.4% and Harry Falconer changes to -9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rui Soares becomes +2.5% and for Harry Falconer becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rui Soares: 89%, Harry Falconer: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rui Soares: 80%, Harry Falconer: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rui Soares: 25,465, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Harry Falconer: 20,225, level confidence: 81%.