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Perry Malik v Greg Jansz (Thu 12 Sep 2019)

Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Perry Malik: 15,768, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Greg Jansz: 6,454, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 144% better than Greg Jansz.

Perry Malik won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played 94% better than Greg Jansz in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Perry Malik was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,100 and 15,768 without affecting his level.

In this case, Perry Malik played at level 12,731 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Perry Malik would normally have been playing at level 12,936 (based on typical behaviour), Greg Jansz played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to 0% and Greg Jansz changes to +0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes 0% and for Greg Jansz becomes +0.4%.

Given Greg Jansz's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Perry Malik is 0% and for Greg Jansz is +0.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 77%, Greg Jansz: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 69%, Greg Jansz: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Perry Malik: 15,807, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Greg Jansz: 6,490, level confidence: 78%.