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Phil Sargeant v Scott Handley (Wed 11 Sep 2019)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 5-11,8-11,5-11.

Starting level for Phil Sargeant: 8,932, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 13,088, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Phil Sargeant.

Scott Handley won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 83% better than Phil Sargeant in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Handley actually played at a level of 14,640 and Phil Sargeant at a level of 7,985. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.7% and 9.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to +5% and Phil Sargeant changes to -9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes +1.9% and for Phil Sargeant becomes -3.2%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Given Phil Sargeant's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is +1.1% and for Phil Sargeant is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 86%, Phil Sargeant: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 77%, Phil Sargeant: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Sargeant: 8,737, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 13,214, level confidence: 77%.