Tayyab Aslam v Yannik Omlor (Tue 10 Sep 2019)
Match won by Tayyab Aslam. Result: 11-8,10-12,11-5,12-10.
Starting level for
Tayyab Aslam:
29,523, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Yannik Omlor:
17,246, level confidence: 59%.
Tayyab Aslam to win as he is currently playing
71% better than Yannik Omlor.
Tayyab Aslam won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tayyab Aslam played
25% better than Yannik Omlor in this match.
As Tayyab Aslam has played below his allowed range at 23,275, his level reduction is 7.8% before damping. On the assumption that Tayyab Aslam would normally have been playing at level 27,212 (based on typical behaviour), Yannik Omlor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 9.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam changes to -5.3% and Yannik Omlor changes to +9.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam becomes -1.7% and for Yannik Omlor becomes +2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tayyab Aslam: 81%, Yannik Omlor: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tayyab Aslam: 69%, Yannik Omlor: 66%.
Final level for Tayyab Aslam:
29,038, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Yannik Omlor:
17,706, level confidence: 66%.